An analysis of the situation in the Middle East,
by   Brian Stratford.

 

Peace in the Middle East needs Justice

       
       

Summary

Underlying the problems of the Middle East is injustice.  The injustice needs to be recognised and corrected.

 

1. Basis of suspicion in the Middle East

Many people in the Middle East have a suspicion of Western policies.  Such suspicion long predated the war with Iraq.

There are obvious possible causes for the suspicion.

(a)  Oil - here taken as an abbreviation for oil and natural gas.
Before the 1980s the UK did not have its own oil.  Now, today, the US does not have enough of its own oil, while the UK home supply is only marginally enough and could become insufficient.  The ordinary financial cost of buying oil abroad is not particularly important in the UK and USA.  However, the security of supply is very important.  Without oil, both the civil and the military structures of both countries would be severely shaken.  National policies are therefore necessary for maintaining security of supply.  However, such policies tend to be unpopular abroad, and tend to be blamed for unpopular actions taken by the western countries.

(b)    The Zionist revolt of 1948 was successful.  It was at a time when Britain, the USSR, and the USA had recently defeated Italy, Germany, and Japan, who between them had been in control of a large proportion of the total world power.  It is almost inconceivable that Britain and the USA between them could not have suppressed the Zionists had they so wished.  It therefore seems necessary to suppose that Britain and the USA "allowed" the revolt to succeed.  At the time, Britain had been administering Arab Palestine, and, were it not for the Zionist revolt and the general Jewish situation, Palestine may well soon have been handed back to the Palestinians.  And so:

(c)    effectively, therefore, the result of allowing the Zionist revolt to succeed was that the area that formed the post-1948 Israel was taken from the Palestinians, by Britain and the USA, and given to the Zionists, to form the nation state of Israel.

(d)    Israel flourished.  The Israeli people's western influenced education, their western connections, with some western wealth, and with the USA strongly supporting Israel with military equipment, all allowed Israel to become more than a match for other Middle East countries, both economically and militarily.

(e)  After the 1967 war, the United Nations instructed Israel to give up all of the territories occupied during the war and to withdraw to its pre-1967 boundaries.  However, some people insist that the key resolution, Resolution 242, was deliberately worded ambiguously, such that Israel needed to give up only some of the occupied territories.  To the present writer, the Resolution is intended to be interpreted by "reasonable men" and, to the present writer, a reasonable man would interpret Resolution 242 as instructing Israel to give up all of the territories occupied during the '67 war.  Even so, if it is true that there were some "diplomatic" half hidden meanings which intended a different legal interpretation of Resolution 242, then those diplomatic subtleties, presumably aimed at confirming Israel's new ownership of at least some of the conquered territories, would further have increased suspicion of western governments in Middle Eastern eyes.

(f)  Despite being instructed to withdraw to the pre'67 frontiers, Israel still has not done so, even over a period of 37 years.  For this behaviour it has had the backing of at least the USA.

(g)  Israel has apparently been allowed to develop and manufacture quite a large stock of atomic or nuclear weapons, whereas other countries in the Middle East, as far as is known, have not been allowed to have any such weapons.

 

2.  The other side of the coin

We need to examine what other factors have been influencing the Middle East during the period since the end of the Second World War.

The most obvious factor seems to have been the existence of the "cold war".

The Soviet government had been set up in 1918 in opposition to the imperial Russian government; historians can tell us of many reasons why revolution may have been necessary.  However, the Soviet government met extreme problems of its own.  Statements have been made that many millions, if not tens of millions, of people were killed within the Soviet Union during the period of nominal peace between the end of the revolution and the entry of the Soviet Union into the Second World War.  With such a horrific situation as background, it is not surprising that the USA and UK governments after the war took all possible precautions against any possible aggressive action by the Soviet Union.  Obviously the precautions taken by the USA and the UK were primarily to protect themselves.  Nevertheless, it is fair to claim that, while Middle Eastern countries may dislike western countries interfering in their affairs, they would have disliked interference by the Soviet Union very much more.  Now, whether or not it was initially a part of the above policy of trying to contain the Soviet Union, the chain of events by which the governments of the USA and UK allowed Israel to be established in Palestine, and then allowed Israel to be strengthened in Palestine, gave to the USA and UK another potential forward base which could in fact have helped them to contain the Soviet Union.  Established Israel also became a potential base from which they could increase the security of their oil supplies.  So Israel has been a very great help to the USA and UK. Nevertheless, this same strengthening of the USA and UK would also have protected the Middle Eastern countries, and other countries as well, from what could otherwise have been the possible extreme consequences of Soviet aggression.

So, yes, effectively the USA and the UK have taken land from the Palestinians. That is an outstanding injustice and must be addressed.  Middle Eastern countries therefore have reason and justice on their side.  However, the very high security benefit that did in fact accrue to the USA and UK applied also, in very large measure, to those same Middle Eastern countries.  So there certainly must be discussion of the outstanding injustice to the Palestinians and there certainly must be action to correct it. However, the beneficial results from the situation must also be taken into account.

 

3.  Summary of the problem

Effectively, Israel was given its land by the UK and USA in 1948 and has been encouraged by them to develop it ever since.  Moreover, Israel's strong situation was of great assistance during the 40 years of the cold war.  These are strong arguments for Israel's claiming possession of her present territories.

On the other hand, and this is equally important, Palestine belongs to the Palestinians.  No amount of military supremacy can deny the rightful ownership of Palestine by the Palestinians.  Gone are the days when military superiority gave to any government or people the right to take other people's land.  And to try to build the future of the world differently, on military supremacy, at this stage of civilisation, and at this stage of military weaponry, could destroy the future.  It is only the Palestinians who can give Palestine to the Israelis.  And as a further feature, Israel has been under instructions for 37 years, from the UN Security Council, to withdraw completely to its pre-1967 boundaries.

 We need to find justice in the above situation.

 

4.  Resolution of the situation

Solomon's apparent solution was to raise his sword and cut into two halves.  Solomon combined wisdom and justice and love.  His was a good example for today.  Perhaps something like Solomon's real solution can come about now.

But first, "the two halves solution", as it was that which made Solomon's final solution possible.

The greatest justice would seem to the writer to be that the total Palestinian area, that is, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, should be cut into two halves.  Now inevitably, for a workable result, that would involve much compromise.  However, given the compromise, the "halves" would be as near as possible to being genuinely equal, that is close to 50% each, rather than 90% to 10%, or even 60% to 40%.  An agreed priority order would first be established for the many important features of the country.  With the priority order in view, dividing lines would then be chosen to give each half as near as is possible 50% of the present total population, 50% of the total area of land, 50% of the total water rights, 50% of the important areas and buildings of Jerusalem, 50% of the culturally important areas outside Jerusalem, and 50% of the total value of the land plus buildings.  Each half would also be fully continuous in its own right and would have efficient means of communication both internally and externally.  Then, the western countries under the auspices of the UN would rather urgently supply housing, schools, universities, and other infrastructure, as would be required at least by the Palestinians.  The Palestinian government could ask say two other governments of its choice to act as monitors and advisors, such that all the three governments could report to the UN on the progress with the reconstruction and the appropriate use of the resources provided.  In addition, western countries could also offer to help in achieving stable full employment and a rapidly expanding Palestinian economy, but only if they found themselves welcome in so doing.

"The two halves solution" would be excellent in many ways.  It would probably be the easiest solution.  It would be the fall back solution as supported by the UN.

The attitude of justice underlying the two halves solution would need to be adopted for all the policies of the western countries.  Once other countries could see the change in western policies, greater co-operation might be expected to develop.  In particular, co-operation might gradually develop between the Palestinians and the Israelis.  But it would be very gradual.  Perhaps the best long term solution would be for the two halves to be created, and, when these were functioning reasonably well, a small central region could be run jointly.  Then, over a long period, a fully unified country may gradually develop.

In parallel with the negotiations over Palestine, the US would be expected to take steps, or more steps, to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil.  The writer has interests in energy, and so will not directly discuss it here, but many other people have suggested possible policy changes which the US could make.  If the US reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern oil, the reduced dependence would become obvious, and that change would further ease the tensions in the world situation.

 

Brian Stratford,

brian@brianstratford.com

June, 2004.

 
 
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